Data and analysis/Prices
Data and analysis

Water and heat prices in Europe: what happened and what we expect

The figures are not ours. They come from national statistical offices, energy regulators, industry bodies and — in Hungary — directly from the tariff decree; each anchor below names its own source. We only build the scenarios to 2035 from them, and we use no more than the low scenario in a quotation.

99128156DEPLHU2014201620182020202220242025
Water supply, harmonised consumer price index (Eurostat HICP CP0441, 2015 = 100). ⛔ This shows the direction of travel, never the price level — levels are national and appear as anchors below. Hungary is flat because household prices have been frozen since 2013; the non-residential segment we sell to is not in this index. Series shown through 2025.
97141185DEPLHU2014201620182020202220242025
District heating, harmonised consumer price index (Eurostat HICP CP0455, 2015 = 100, series through 2025). Same caveat: price change, not price level.

Anchors for 2026

4.69 €/m³estimate
Germany — drinking water + wastewater, excl. VAT
Destatis, last observed 2025, extrapolated to 2026 · this sum is what enters the saving; the scenario table below moves drinking water alone. ⚠ The statistic samples household-sized meters, but in Germany the rate per m³ is the same for every customer — only the standing charge scales with meter size. ⚠ The source publishes gross prices (“including VAT, where levied”), but municipal sewerage charges in Germany are a sovereign task and are not subject to VAT (§ 2 (3) UStG; § 2b binding only from 1 Jan 2027). Without knowing the share of municipalities that do levy it there is no single net value — the range runs from 4.26 to 4.69 €/m³ and we operate at the upper end
5.65 zł/m³estimate
Poland — drinking water, excl. VAT
GUS BDL, last observed 2025, extrapolated to 2026 · sewerage comes from the client's own tariff
1,577 Ft/m³
Hungary — water + sewerage, non-residential, excl. VAT
Decree 2/2026 (VI. 30.) ÉKFM · nationally uniform since 2024. ⭐ Not an estimate: the decree applies to 2026 directly.
36.82 €/GJestimate
Germany — district heating
VEA, last observed 2025, extrapolated to 2026, 600 kW connection

Three scenarios to 2035

MarketScenariop.a.20262035
Germany — drinking water only, €/m³low2.0 %2.002.39
Germany — drinking water only, €/m³medium3.2 %2.002.66
Germany — drinking water only, €/m³high4.5 %2.002.97
MarketScenariop.a.20262035
Poland — water only, zł/m³low3.0 %5.657.37
Poland — water only, zł/m³medium4.5 %5.658.40
Poland — water only, zł/m³high6.5 %5.659.96
MarketScenariop.a.20262035
Hungary — water + sewerage, Ft/m³low3.0 %1,5772,058
Hungary — water + sewerage, Ft/m³medium4.5 %1,5772,344
Hungary — water + sewerage, Ft/m³high6.5 %1,5772,780

How we work with this

For public tenders we assume zero price growth
For tender documents we assume no price growth at all, so the payback holds even if prices stood still for ten years.
Into a quotation, at most the low scenario
⛔ The high scenario is an upper bound in the sensitivity analysis, not a forecast — we publish it but do not use it.
An index shows direction, never level
⛔ The charts above are harmonised consumer price indices. They compare how prices moved between countries, which is the only thing that is truly comparable across borders. The level always comes from the national source.
⚠ Hungary is the trap
Hungarian public figures describe households, whose prices have been frozen since 2013. Our customer — a hotel, hospital or authority — is an egyéb felhasználó. ⚠ For water that does not mean an unregulated price: since 2024 the non-residential tariff is regulated and uniform across the country — it simply sits outside the household index. District heating for that segment did move with the market, by more than fivefold between 2021 and 2023 and back. Reading “prices are flat in Hungary” off the index gets it backwards either way.
Wastewater is half the saving
Save a cubic metre and you do not discharge one either. A saving computed on the water price alone is roughly half of what it actually is.
A national average is not a quotation
⭐ Into a quotation we take the tariff from your own invoice. The spread between regions inside one country is wider than the gap between our scenarios.
The standing charge does not save — but it is on your invoice
Alongside the rate per m³ runs a standing charge, graded by meter size. It does not fall with consumption, so it never enters the saving. ⚠ At our connection sizes it is several times what a household pays, so it does belong in the reconciliation against your invoice — otherwise our figures and your bill will not line up.
Very large sites are priced from their own contract
A site on an individual supply contract pays its own rate per m³. ⭐ Official statistics leave such customers out anyway, so for a large building we take the price from that contract rather than from an average.
How much of this are you paying for nothing?

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